Payrolls disappointment to feed NZD momentum – ING
Francesco Pesole – FX Strategist at ING – expects the dollar weakness to be mainly channeled via the activity currencies, with the NZD possibly leading the pack.
Our economics team is expecting today’s US jobs data to be below market expectations, with the headline employment increase at 70k in October versus the consensus 85k (according to a Bloomberg survey). The Oct ISM manufacturing will also be closely watched. Consensus overestimated the index in five of the past six reads, and our economists believe this could be the case again as they see the widely expected rebound in the gauge limited to 48.5 (vs cons. 49).
We expect today’s slew of data to weigh on the dollar whilst possibly undermining the freshly-formed expectations that the Fed will pause in December. The slew of Fed speakers (Kaplan, Clarida, Quarles, Daly, Williams) may also attract some attention as markets seek clarity after this week’s FOMC announcement.
The kiwi dollar has outperformed risk-sensitive peers AUD and CAD, gaining good momentum. NZD/USD is now stabilizing above 0.64, mostly thanks to a strong repricing of RBNZ rate expectations and some short-squeezing effect (the NZD is the most oversold currency in G10). We expect such momentum to help NZD outperform the G10 block if payrolls disappoint.