FOMC: Still no pre-commitment to more easing – Danske Bank
Danske Bank analysts expect the Federal Reserve will cut rates again by 25bp when it meets next week (announcement Wednesday 19:00 CEST).
“While economists are evenly divided between those expecting a cut and those expecting the Fed to remain on hold, investors have nearly fully priced in a cut (90% probability, according to Bloomberg).”
“It is more difficult to predict Fed actions than previously, as policymakers disagree on the best way forward. There were three dissents last time (two voting for unchanged, one voting for a bigger cut), which is a lot looking back at Fed actions historically. However, we would have expected the Fed to talk down market expectations more explicitly if it was not easing again. We also believe it makes sense to ease when looking at the data.”
“It is one of the interim meetings so the Fed will not publish updated projections (hence, no new dot plot). The focus will be on the statement and the press conference following. We do not expect major changes to the statement but it was interesting that the FOMC members discussed whether to include some forward guidance on when to expect the Fed to end rate cuts for insurance reasons. We expect the Fed to keep the sentence that it “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion “, i.e. easing bias without pre-commitment.”
“A 25bp rate cut is currently priced in with more than 90% probability. Given that we expect the easing bias to be maintained, but without a pre-commitment to further reductions, the impact on the US treasury market should be limited.”